Interest Rates

Stress Test and Political Cacophony

Prepare ourselves to think about the heretofore unthinkable: The break up of the Euro Zone. What started as a much-higher-than-expected debt-to-GDP-ratio in Greece, made its way to Ireland may soon arrive in Portugal and Spain. So far, these two southern core economies of the Euro Zone have avoided the regulations of bailout packages, which now seem to have merely been delayed. Already, the spread of Spanish and Portuguese government bonds compared to German Bunds has increased significantly.  Yet, even Germany recently had to pay a small premium on its government bonds, as investors feared that the exposure of German financial institutions in the debt-troubled economies of the Zone might endanger economic stability in Germany—turning the crisis deadly for the Euro Zone. It is now well established that the common currency cannot survive with such huge differences in debt costs (table). Just how to overcome the crisis, however, is hotly contested.

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